As we roll into 2024, we know BYD has a big year ahead int terms of product delivery. Just how busy will it be? How will BYD battle its competitors?
In terms of tech, we’ve already seen a really wonderful presentation of its intelligent car plans. Aside from that, we know DM-i 5.0 is in development and will likely be out this year. A new E 3.0 will likely come out and show even more efficient gain and cost reduction. New generation CTB, greater composite usage and Blade 2.0 are other factors driving weight saving and longer range. We should see more tech unveiling related to this coming out in 2024. Aside from that, Denza brand will apparently receive two new type of motor tech in 2024: E3 (which is 3 eMotors: 2 in front and 1 at back) as well as DM-s (super dual motor). BYD has huge teams working on different Fudi divisions. It is not surprising that Fudi motors can consistently come out with multiple game breaking motor tech in back-to-back years.
Aside from this, what are the cars that BYD will be unveiling this year? Well, I’ve compiled a list of interesting models that I’ve ranked in order that I find the most interesting and I hope they all get launched this year. This is a very long list across the multiple brands, so they may not all be launched.
1) Pickup Truck/UTE - This has been rumored since 2022 in China and in Australia & various other places since 2023. In fact, Australian dealer specifically said it will be launched in Australia this year. Since it has not even been unveiled in China, it has ld to a lot of speculations when the launching will happen in the domestic market. There has bee multiple photos of UTE undergoing testing. Most people expect the initial variant to be PHEV. The actual motor is unclear. While I initially expected DM-o motor, I now think this is unlikely, since it’s expected to be launched as one of the mass market brand. As such, I expect UTE to use a new type of DM motor. I also expect multiple versions of pickup to come out over time. BYD has been really quick at putting products to market and filling up product gap. As one of the remaining holes in its general lineup, I think BYD will take this extremely seriously and fully cover the range of pickup trucks. BYD entrance into pickup market would also be a shock to GWM (who it has a huge rivalry with) and offer a price competitive NEV alternative in the pickup market. Needless to say, I think it will sell very well.
2) FangChengBao 8 - I think Bao-8 will be a really big deal. Large SUV has been a constant struggle for BYD. Denza N7 & N8 have been failures up to this point. Tang EV and DM-i/p have really lost competitiveness in the past year to Li Auto SUVs and Huawei AITO M7/M9. While BYD will need to come up with a compelling standard large 6/7-seat family style SUV to L8/L9 and M9, Bao-8 will also be a high end and large SUV. Some people will like getting large off-road vehicles even if they don’t drive it all that much. It will also help BYD to complete product lineup against GWM’s Tank series. How does larger Tank series SUV retain its market place when Bao-8 becomes available? It will also likely be the first FCB model to have L2+ ADAS with Highway and City NOA (since BYD said NOA will come standard with all 300k+ models)
3) Han Refresh - I put Han up this high because it has been the flagship model in BYD’s mass market brand. It was the first more expensive model to really break through for BYD. It is a medium to larger sedan that has been front and center to BYD’s electrification efforts. It was BYD’s first model to have SiC chip in eMotor and the first to go under 4s in 0-100km/h. However, it is getting old. Many new BEV sedans with more impressive specs have come out recently. BYD has been cutting Han prices to maintain 20000 sales a month. It is also overwhelmingly selling DM-i version rather than EV version recently. What it needs is a move to the latest incarnation of E 3.0, CTB tech, more powerful motor, blade 2.0, L2+ ADAS, new DiLink platform and many other upgrades. In summary, it needs to be competitive as BYD’s flagship mass market Sedan to other 200k+ sedan products. BYD success here will be a good sign it can successfully refresh other popular mass market models in this critical fast moving juncture of China’s EV development.
4) Yangwang U9/U7 - While the tech displayed on Yangwang series are the most impressive, they are not the most important models for BYD. U9 and U7 are likely to share several element. They will both be using the all impressive S4 electric motor system with 4 240kW motors providing 1300hp. U9 can go 0-100 in 1.9s. U7 can probably get close to that with same motor and lower drag coefficient. Both will likely come with new highly efficient SiC drive train along with Disus-X intelligent Chassis that can jump. Put together, U7/U8/U9 will truly disrupt world’s luxury market. Yangwang brand likely generates very high margins, but their real value lies in raising BYD’s profile and target audience. Someone that cannot afford U7 may be happy with Denza’s new S3 motor and Disus-A Chassis. Someone that cannot afford U9 may be happy with FangChengBao’s new race car model with DM-O motor and watered-down Disus-X chassis. That’s the value you get with such a high quality brand.
5) Song Refresh - Song is the highest selling family for BYD. As such, it faced assaults from multiple brands in 2023. The competition will be even more fierce in 2024. I think Leapmotor will provide additional pressure against Song family. All other domestic brands will continue to launch vehicles that compete against Song family. BYD gotten through 2023 by positioning Song Pro as the low cost option while Song+ as the quality product option for most families. Song L completed the lineup by filling in the BEV SUV market. A Song Refresh should push improvement in both DM-i & EV version. The EV version should use short blade battery as well as DM-i 5.0 motor along with improved ADAS. Ideally, Song Refresh should offer L2+ offering involving Lidar-less Highway NOA and advanced parking functionalities as well as Improved ICC for City. EV version should use improved E3.0 as well as CTB and improved Blade battery charing and density. Both versions should have improved intelligent functionalities. BYD cannot rely on Song just staying ahead of its competition. It need to make Song Refresh the most competitive option for 150-180k RMB market over the next few years.
6) Yuan Up - This is expected to be a mini-SUV smaller than even Yuan+. BYD has lacked a small entry level SUV like it has with Seagull and Dolphin. Adding Yuan Up would complete its SUV lineup on the lower end with something that can shine against what Wuling and Chery. In terms of size, it would be smaller than Yuan+. Seagull and Qin+ drove a lot of sales for BYD in second half of 2023. Yuan Up should give them a third model to really kill the ICE competition and battle out that segment with Wuling. It’s basically a volume driver that will help BYD achieve 4 million sales in one year. This car is expected to be unveiled soon. One can imagine that BYD really taking over low-end market with 3 cars of different size and shapes.
7) New Denza Sedan - Denza N7 and N8 have experienced tough sales number since being launched half a year ago. A whole host of new energy SUV entered into market soon after their launch and caused N7/N8 sales to dry up in midst of rapid changes and overly fierce competition. This new flagship sedan will be Denza’s new model. It is likely to use the latest E3.0 platform, CTB battery tech and E3 (3 eMotor rather than 4 motors like on Yangwang). Actually, 2 sedans are expected next year based on comments from BYD sales chief. Denza needs its sedans to have full L2+ ADAS support from day 1 and have higher acceleration, higher top speed (25k rpm eMotor) and more power (maybe 3 240kW motors) than competition + 4C charging to wow the market and be successful.
8) New Denza large SUV - (N8 Max or N9) It is unclear to me whether N8 Max or N9 will come out first. Clearly, N8 is a failure and will never gain traction. N8 was simply not big enough or “smart” enough. N8 Max would need to compete against L8 and future AITO M8. N9 will need to compete against L9 and AITO M9. This is where the fiercest competition is happening in Chinese EV industry right now. BBA will loose sales in this segment next few years. Denza needs to try to gain sales from BBA rather than loose this market entirely to Huawei and Li Auto. I think their large SUV will come with CTC battery packing tech, 3C charging, up to 200km pure electric range, a new DM-S (super dual motor tech) capable of turning tighter, accelerating faster, comparable space and be competitive in smart car functionality. Again, it needs to come standard with Lidar and City NOA to be successful.
9) Dynasty Series MPV - Denza D9 has been a huge success, but it is relatively expensive. BYD needs a cheaper mass market MPV with enough size to satisfy families while also cheap enough to win market share against large SUVs and cheaper MPVs. BYD has clear cost advantage and brand advantage over most of its competitors. We have also seen a dynasty series MPV undergoing testing. It would slide along with refreshed Han and Tang to battle market share in this very crowded 200-300k RMB segment. This MPV would need to come with optional L2+ ADAS, DM-i 5.0 and CTB+E3.0 for BEV version
10) FangChengBao 3 - Has already been unveiled as Off-road product targeting Tank-300. Expects to be launched in second half of the year using the same DM-O motor as Bao-5. Expects to be another SUV for BYD to win market share in 200-300k segment. I would expect this to be another model coming with optional L2+ ADAS. This isn’t as important as Bao-5/8, but allows BYD to complete its product lineup in off road market
11) Sea Lion 07 - It will be significant as the first first Ocean series model with L2+ ADAS and could be launched by Beijing auto show. However in terms of importance, it doesn’t really fill any gaps in BYD’s product line. It is kind of similar to Song L in dimension and is just another SUV targeting Model Y
12) Tang Refresh - Tang family was selling relatively well in 2022 for BEV, DM-p & DM-i version. Due to all the new competition in 200-300k sergment, BYD had to cut its prices significantly just to keep sales of 10k per month. It is rapidly losing product competitiveness. A refresh is badly needed. The pure electric version needs to come with more updated E3.0 architecture, powerful motor, CTB, blade 2.0 and faster charging speed be competitive. PHEV version needs DM-i and new DM-p version to be competitive in fuel economy and performance. It would need to come with L2+ ADAS optionality. This is expected for any model in this segment.
13) Qin L - Fills gap between Qin+ and Han. Priced around 140-150k for Q1 launching. PHEV version uses 5th Gen DM-i motor and comes with 60 to 90 km pure electric range. BEV version uses E 3.0, rear wheel motor and CTB tech. It completes Dynasty family lineup of sedans. It probably ends up competing against Seal in some ways. But more importantly, it will represent existential thread to Camry, Accord and Passat in medium sized Sedans.
14) Sea Lion 06/05 - Additional smaller SUVs that may end up competing against Song+ family. This is another case of BYD competing against BYD. From that perspective, I don’t know if it’s actually needed. I’m waiting for more details to come out to understand how it slots in BYD’s lineup. These are probably going to be just more entry level SUVs. Maybe they will end up replacing the aging Song Pro.
15) Seal 06 - From it’s name, one can imagine it to be another sedan in Ocean family that will be smaller than the current Seal and Seal DM-i. That would put it somewhere around Qin+ to Qin L in size. Maybe, it will end up being the more popular A class sedan. I will have to wait for more details on it
Just wanted say I heard your interview on manifold and it was great .