As we await the maiden flight of China’s 6th generation fighter jet J-XD, it’s good to take a look back at the development of China’s modern fighter jet industry.
After the breakup with Soviet, China was left with trying to mass produce J-6s and J-7s on its own. Due to the backward nature of China’s aerospace industry at the time, it struggled putting J-7s in mass production with good enough performance. It really wasn’t until J-7E when China finally produced a version of J-7 that it was happy with. At the time, AVIC itself had two major subsidiaries in Shenyang AC (112 factory and 601 Institute) and Chengdu AC (132 factory and 611 Institute). SAC was considered to be the bigger brother and more advanced than CAC. It was put in charge of the J-8 project and subsequently handed off J-7 to CAC. SAC later worked on J-8II project, which allowed it work with American companies in the “Peace Pearl” program. While that project ended in 1989, SAC got some valuable experience working with the Americans. Later on, it would continue to work on new J-8 variants until it finally reached J-8F and J-8H in the early 2000s. J-8F was the first PLAAF fighter jet to be able to fire PL-12 BVR AAM. As SAC was still improving on J-8, it was also given the task of producing Su-27s locally as J-11. It took a while for SAC to master the production of flankers, but it was eventually able to do this by mid 2000s. Over time, it mastered flanker production so much that it produced a domestic variant called J-11B that utilized latest Chinese missiles and avionics.
While SAC was working on J-8s and flankers, CAC won the bid for 4th generation fighter jet with it’s J-10 design. Back when I first stated following PLA back in early 2000s, the J-10 project was often described as China’s Apollo project. It was thought of as a nationwide effort to develop supply chain for a modern 4th generation fighter jet. Although I would not necessarily categorize the project as such, it was a huge undertaking and really trained a whole generation of young aerospace engineers at CAC. While the project received help from the Israelis and the Russians, it was definitely a project that CAC started and finished. The J-10 project incorporated the latest material science, radar technology, missile technology, digital FBW system, modern cockpit, datalinking, mission computer and more in its development.
The first prototype “1001” was rolled out in mid 1997 using Russia’s AL-31FN engine, but did not make its maiden flight until March of 1998. The first production version of J-10 flew in the mid 2002. China ordered 54 AL-31FNs to be delivered from 2002 to 2004. For a while there, we had a solid idea of upper range of J-10 numbers based on engine deliveries. The first J-10 regiment officially entered service in the 44th Division in 2004. Soon after this, story started coming out about J-10s out performing Su-27/30s in various air to air combat exercises. As J-10s started rolling out to different regiments, we started to hear about a new J-10 variant that would be similar in performance to Rafale. That variant J-10B made its maiden flight in December of 2008. J-10B was a huge improvement over J-10A. It used a DSI bump (first adopted by CAC on JF-17) to reduce weight and improve radar signature. While not easily viewable from the outside, the PLA insiders said it contained a redesigned interior with integrated electronic system that incorporated many of the concepts that CAC eventually wanted to incorporate on its 5th generation aircraft.
We saw that J-10B had an electronically scanned radar antenna (first production aircraft to adopt electronically scanned radar in PLAAF) integrated into its entire electronic architecture with advanced EW suite, an IRST/LR sensor, modern cockpit, holographic HUD, MAWS sensors and full suite of weapons.
We would see this aircraft continue to improve in J-10C in both weapon support (PL-10 and PL-15), new radar (AESA one), better build quality and eventually using domestic engine in WS-10B. By 2022, J-10CE was delivered to Pakistani Air Force in the first export deal for J-10.
PAF pilots have talked about just how modern and “stealthy” J-10CE is. It really showcased that CAC made huge advancement in the tech, production quality and material science improvements. They are absolutely confident of utilizing J-10CE as the counterweight to the more expensive and well known Rafale.
While CAC was making these advancements to J-10 project, SAC was also quite busy. After initial problems with WS-10 engines, J-11B eventually became very successful. PLA really loved getting its hands on the first set of heavy fighter jet. That included its huge payload and range. The Su-30 acquisition was a major moment in PLAAF history. It allowed PLAAF to go from a defensive air force to attacking air force. As such, it was not a surprise when SAC finally produced the ideal flanker for PLAAF → J-16. J-16 is basically an indigenous version of Su-30. Although, it is significantly upgraded with much better radar, avionics, larger payload, fuel capacity, improved material for lower radar signature and support for whole range of Chinese missiles. Since it joined service in 2015, it has impressed PLAAF pilots with its very powerful radar and EW suite. According to insiders, it has also seen significant upgrade over time with improved software and hardware. Aside from J-16, SAC also did great work in developing China’s naval fighter J-15. While it did acquire a Su-33 prototype from Ukraine, SAC and PLAN had to do a lot of work in designing it locally and figure out the entire training and operational program on an aircraft carrier. Since then, SAC has come out with J-16D, J-15T and J-15D variants. The entire flanker program gave China a nice counterweight to the USAF Strike Eagle fleet and USN Super Hornet fleet.
We are at the point now where PLAAF has more or less finished procuring all the 4th generation aircraft it needs. It is rapidly transitioning to 5th generation fighter jet so that it can retire all the J-7s, J-8s, JH-7/As and early 4th gen aircraft. Which brings us to the J-20 program.
I still remember seeing pictures of the first J-20 prototype doing high speed taxiing at CAC. This was after a comment in 2009, when a high ranking PLAAF official said it would enter service in 8 to 10 years. It was also after PAK-FA made its first flight in early 2010. At the time, most of the China watchers expected the Russians to put its 5th generation aircraft into service first. All the insiders on the now defunct cjdby were discussing the anticipated first flight of J-20, so we knew it was coming soon. Even so, we did not really know what to make of the first prototype. Back then, most of the armchair QBs online were surprised by J-20’s size. They thought it was going to be more of a fighter bomber or an aircraft designed to have long range and take out American force multipliers like AWACS and transports. There were also a lot of criticism of its stealth due to the presence of canards. Since then, various studies have been published to show that canards are not necessarily bad for stealth and can be managed. USAF also uses F-35s in their aggressor squads to simulate J-20. This would give people a good idea of how stealthy they considered J-20 to be. Of course, they used F-16s to simulate Su-57s.
More than anything else, those early armchair QBs were found to be wrong about the intended role of J-20. It was designed from day 1 as an air superiority fighter jet. Maybe it didn’t join service with an engine powerful enough for it to have F-22 level of flight performance, but various demonstrations at air shows have demonstrated its extremely strong maneuverability. Time has now validated PLA’s decision to pick such a large aircraft. We now favor aircraft with greater payload and range for a potential Pacific conflict. Greater range and hang time allows J-20 to perform its mission longer and further out than a F-22 or F-35. Having great interior space means J-20 has the real estate to house more powerful radar, EW suite, computation power, APU and thermal management system (for cooling and such). Essentially as demand for AI and computing increase, it becomes a huge advantage to have more space for power generation, cooling and the computing unit themselves. We’ve seen with CAC using a deeper spine (or hump) to provide additional precious interior real estate in the upgraded J-20A variant. While that may not look a like a lot, the additional space can house additional electronics or fuel.
This is a scenario where starting the project later really helped. The demand for low observable and highly integrated electronic architecture main, but the demand for longer range and greater AI and computing need became more obvious in recent years. Reading articles like this just show how painful it is for F-35 to house thermal management system that will future proof its power requirements. This will not go into production unit until 2032! Just think about that, J-20A will beat F-35 block 4 into service by probably 7 years. But the most surprising part of J-20 program is just the rapid ramp up in production. Up until J-20, the most production we saw out of any recent program was 40 to 50 a year. J-20 itself moved along slowly at 10 to 20 a year while still using AL-31, before bumping up aggressively once WS-10C made its way onto J-20. Since probably 2022, we have seen production rate bumped to 70 a year and this year it has hit probably closer to 100. Satellite photos would show that CAC factory floors are continuing to expand with new factory entering production soon. Since the supply chain is also rapidly ramping up, it would not be a surprise if production hits 150 a year or even higher over the next few years. The production facility is there, but the actual procurement will be dependent on funding and training pipeline. But either way, PLAAF is rapidly exiting the age of J-7s.
After J-20 made its maiden flight, there was some that speculated that PLAAF only had enough funding for 1 5th generation program. However by late 2011 or early 2012, some SAC insider revealed that SAC was working on a 5th generation project, a strike fighter project and a X-47B type of project. And that they would appear over the next year. It eventually turned out to be J-35, J-16 and GJ-11. They all did have their first flight over the next year. The most significant was the first flight of 31001.
At the time, it was just striking how much 31001 looked like a twin-engine version of F-35. Unfortunately for me, I had to deal with much mockery of China copying on military forums. Even so, it was not clear at the time the plan for this program. While PLA was obviously funding it, what was its intended role?
SAC certainly took its time with this program. Since J-20 was proceeding nicely, there wasn’t too much pressure on this project to move faster. SAC was more focused on J-15, J-16 and various flanker variants. It took until December of 2016 before the version 2 (31003) of this aircraft had its first flight.
By 2018, it was rumored that this aircraft was picked as China’s 5th generation naval aircraft and received designation J-35. We saw J-35 having its maiden flight in 2021
It’s certainly made many appearance since then as mockups on board both Liaoning and the brand new Fujian aircraft carrier. It looks like we need to wait a couple of more years before entering naval service.
While this was happening, SAC also flew the production version of the air force version J-35A for the first time in 2023. It has since made a lot of news recently in the Zhuhai air show.
Based on the recent reporting, we expect this aircraft to join service next year. It’s build quality, stealthy shaping and clean look are what one would expect for a fighter jet that is about to entering service at this time. By joining the party relatively late, J-35A was probably designed to deal with the increased computing needs of fighter jet. Unlike F-35, J-35A as a new aircraft would have been designed to probably handle cooling by cycling the heat through the entire aircraft to even out IR signature and deal with increased computing need. The interior layout of J-35A would’ve been designed with high computation and AI in mind. It is also possible that by using the latest thermal management and power modules available in China, J-35A would have significantly more compact designs that can last longer cycles. J-35A would also be using the latest meta-material for radar absorption across the full spectrum. In terms of radar and EW suite, it would be using the latest T/R module made with GaN-on-Si wafers. The huge J-35A nose would allow it to house a very powerful radar.
All of this brings us to J-XD or the 6th generation aircraft. Rick Joe has written some pretty good articles on China’s military aviation program and he wrote one on 6th generation program in June. One big question is what makes an aircraft 6th generation? The jump from 4th to 5th generation is quite obvious. 5th generation is expected to be significantly more stealthy and equipped with much better integrated electronics platform than 4th generation. For the longest time, we kept hearing that 6th generation will need to have much longer range and have all aspect stealth across the spectrum compared to 5th generation. It will need to be designed from day 1 to operated with a group of loyal wingman drones. Think of it as the controlling operator that’s directing a bunch of similarly stealthy drones that will also use advanced sensors, EW suites, advanced transmitting and communication electronics + carry missile internally. All of this provides a force multiplier affect with each 6th generation jet with sensor fusion of a whole bunch of manned and unmanned aircraft that can also synchronously coordinate EW against aircraft that have advanced frequency hopping radars. As you can see, AI and computation will be at high premium for the next generation fighter jet. Loyal wingman will be expected to not only be stealthy and providing data to manned aircraft, but also be able to “think” on its own. Given what we have talked about already, I have always expected next generation fighter to be really large. That is also what USAF officials publicly stated for a long time. NGAD was going to have the range for a Westpac conflict. Far longer than F-22 and F-35 currently. Next substack entry will discuss what we are actually getting. This is just history up to this point.
Very good news indeed!