The secondary and tertiary effects of recent unveilings

This was a crazy week. There seemed to have been just unveiling after unveiling. Any single one of this unveiling would normally be a big deal, but they were all compressed into release that surprised much of the security establishment. There were the two 6th generation projects, followed by the launching of the first Type 076, the first flight of KJ-3000 AWACS, WZ-9 “anti-stealth” drone, more sighting of modified GJ-11 UCAV, Haolong spacecraft, hypersonic drones MD-19/21/22 and various rotation detonation engine testing. This entry will attempt to piece all of this together to report on how this might all piece together.

Before we get started, I think it’s important to just provide timeline of how these system will get rolled out. As I stated in previous blog entry, J-10 first flew in 1998 and joined service in 2004. J-20 first flew in 2011 and joined service in 2018. Based on those precedence, it is most likely that J-36 will join service around 2031 to 2032. That’s also what most military analysts believe will happen. Many people have pointed out that this particular J-36 prototype of 36011 is a prototype that’s closer to final form, since J-20 first flew with serial 2001 and only came out with prototype with serial number 2011 in 2014 (after significant changes). CAC’s compressed development timeline with J-20 was really quite impressive. Some have speculated that J-36 may join service sooner than in 7 years, because it is closer to final form than J-20’s original demonstrator prototype 2001. The test program for J-36 will have to be very extensive. It is China’s first manned aircraft in the flywing configuration. It also comes with the unique 3 engine configuration as well as those interesting rear flaps. I am sure they have written some very complicated flight control software to manage this novel design. It will take a lot of flight testing to verify that J-36 will move the way they want it to. But more than the flight testing, the electronics testing will be just as extensive. As I discussed in previous entries, it will be expected to perform command and control of surrounding assets as well as integrated electronic warfare. Just think about how long J-15D and J-16D took to finish testing. J-36 will need to conduct EW against aerial, naval and ground target. All 3 of which have their own unique challenges.

Once it gets delivered to CFTE (Chinese Flight Test Establishment), the tactical development portion will also be very extensive. More than ever, the success of a program is the system as a whole. So even though I do believe the J-36 program is quite far along, it will still be a Herculean effort if CAC can get this into service by 2031. We have already seen GJ-11, WZ-9 and MD-22, but more CCA (collaborative combat aircraft - Loyal Wingman UCAVs that collaborate with manned fighter) types will be unveiled that ideally can collaborate with J-36 to the limit of its range and capabilities. They could include fighter drones, attack drones, bomber drones, dedicated EW drones, tanker drones and more (operating in subsonic to hypersonic regime). Some of the drones like GJ-11 and WZ-9 may be ready before J-36. They will join in a system controlled by J-20S, J-20A or J-35 (for navy). In each case, PLA will have command aircraft that have more interior space and cooling than F-35, so would be able to do more in controlling a system of aircraft. Earlier work in this area may shorten some tactical development work for CFTE. So now that I’ve covered the basic timeline, let’s talk about the additional capabilities offered by J-36.

I have already wrote up a thread of the gap between J-20 and J-36 size here. New things that J-36 offer over J-20:

• Significantly greater interior space to power the most powerful radar, RWR, communication antennas, computing servers, EO sensors and EW hardware.

• 3 engine + unusually large internal fuel tanks + rear space for power generator/starter motor/batteries to provide sustained power for the aforementioned electronics.

• Extremely large wings (> 240m^2) + fuselage space for a lot of fuel. “Big Shrimps” reporting 3000 km combat radius and 10000 km range.

• Planform and 3 WS-15 engine that could allow for up to mach 2 supersonic cruise and high mach2 top speed (with afterburners). It can also likely operate at extremely high altitude (> 60000 ft)

• All aspect VLO stealth vs front/side LO stealth

While “big shrimps” mentioned J-36 is likely to have EW capabilities better than J-16D but lower than that of Y-9 EW aircraft. I actually think it is possible J-36 will be the most powerful EW aircraft (of any size) ever serving PLA (even more than Y-9 based ones). I discussed the importance of the aircraft size to power generation and EW here. I already talked about how J-36 is likely to have stronger EW than B-21 due to higher thrust, greater interior for electronic systems/PTMS, larger battery pack, more advanced 4th generation semiconductor tech and fuel load. Hint, power generation for 1 MW platform requires a whole lot of fuel and engine power. Even B-21 can’t match that. Y-9 may have much greater interior space and larger wings to space out EW sensors, but can it really generate as much power as J-36 or lead system-wide EW as well? As I discussed before, EW effort now has to be conducted in a system wide level so that adversaries can see a consistent erroneous picture of battlefield condition (spotting targets where there aren’t and missing targets where they are). If J-36 is coordinating well with a bunch of drones that also carry high power RF antennas, it can apply much pressure on the adversary. Now, here is a picture of J-36 with J-XX (let’s use this as reference to SAC’s 6th generation project).

In both cases, you have a common feature of very large/wide nose and fuselage. So, PLA clearly sees large powerful power generator/cooler and radar/EW suite as central part of 6th generation aircraft. If we want to summarize what they have now. It is a VLO platform that can cruise at mach2.0 and 60000 feet high to battlefield more than 3000 km away and apply many specialized EW aircraft level pressure against air, naval and land defense.

As I showcased above, China recently published studies showing its advancement in Gallium Oxide-on-Diamond RF module. The GaO-on-Diamond substrate offer 14x the thermal conductivity of GaO-on-Si as well as 7.4x that of GaO-on-Sic. Basically, Diamond substrate addresses the extremely poor thermal conductivity property of Gallium Oxide. This type of technology + adequate power generator allow J-36, J-XX and CCAs to generate RF needed to conduct powerful electronic attack. Even a larger CCA could be as powerful in EW as current J-16D by using these next generation RF semiconductor modules.

Now that we have established all the basic properties and strength of J-36 and J-XX, what are the secondary and tertiary effects? Well, the most immediate commentary of online Chinese military analysts is that J-36 is China’s answer to DoD making Guam the cornerstone of its WestPac strategy. At current time, it’s widely believed that China has too much firepower in its vicinity in the shape of DF-17s, cruise missiles, H-6Ks and fighter aircraft. It made a lot of sense to strengthen Guam and nearby dispersed air bases. The latter do not have the air defense, runway or support personnel of Guam, but they are slightly further out than Guam and would make it harder for DF-26s to take them out. Guam to Fujian is 3000 km. Now, if J-36 has 3000 km combat radius, then it can lead attack drones like GJ-11 that not only attack military bases, ships and runways in Guam (and surrounding areas), but also increase the hit probably of H-6K and ship launched cruise missiles as well as DF-26 missiles through improved targeting and EW pressure. If we extend this beyond Guam, J-36’s 3000 km range effectively allows China to extend its air superiority out to 3000 km away from China’s borders. That means all the way to Guam, Palau, Indonesia, Bay of Bengal and Persian Gulf. I draw 3000 km circle radius around Kashgar, Harbin, Shanghai and Santa to illustrate my point.

If you look at the map, that will cover all of East Asia, SouthEast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, West Asia, Sea of Japan, Sea of Okhotsk, Celebes Sea and large parts of West Pacific. That means, China’s aircraft carrier and Type 076 led fleet can sail to all of SCS, Philippine Sea, Sea of Okhotsk and deep into West Pacific without being bothered from the air. Depending on how good you think PLAN’s ASW ability, you could conclude that PLAN can generally operate freely in these waters. Complete air superiority allows a fleet to really hunt and secure the area around its fleet with multitude of aerial ASW asset. What I’m trying to say is that extending PLA’s air dominance to 3000 km beyond its border means it can operate its carrier group that far away from its borders. Similarly, PLA can operate its AWACS and tankers close to that far away from its borders. If China develops stealthy tanker drones that can be launched by Type 003 and Type 076’s EMAL catapult (like based on GJ-11 airframe), then J-36 and CCAs can be refueled to strike even further away. It can also be joined with naval CCAs, J-35s and J-XX to operate even further away. I think this would be the secondary effect of having such an aircraft. Again, J-36 is not operating alone. It is backed up by DF-26/27s as well as multiple large constellation of different satellites. It is also supported by carrier groups. In the Northern direction, it is also assisted by the ability to land in Russian Far Eastern air bases that are not too far from Alaska as shown in the recent China/Russia exercise.

What are the tertiary effects of this? Well, I think America’s NGAD requirements will have to be adjusted so that USAF can still operate in Asia without Guam air base. It will need to at least be at the same level as J-36 in power generation. As such, I think it will also need to have extremely large wings and 3 engines. Even 2 engines with combined 280kN of dry thrust cannot possibly match the power generation and fuel load of a 3 WS-15s aircraft. NGAD will have to go to 3 engines to surpass up to J-36 in EW and radar power + fuel load. Such a reformulation of requirements will inevitably push back the program in terms of selecting a winner and then flying it and putting it into service. I’m estimating 2 more years to pick a winner, 3 more years to flying first prototype and then 7 years of testing. That would put us in 2037. That’s already a fairly aggressive schedule if you consider all the serious work to be done for a new 3 engine aircraft as well as electronic related system testing. Don’t be surprised if this gets delayed longer than that.

That will give PLA a pretty obvious aerial advantage for 5 to 6 years. If we couple that with expected improvement in China’s submarine fleet by then, it would become increasingly hard to convince allies that US military can protect them within this 3000 km ring around China. That will have a huge geopolitical effect. Japan, South Korea, Philippines, India, Vietnam and Australia are all within this ring or right at the edge of it. In fact, the Indian media is already melting down at the prospect of facing a 2 generation gap with PLAAF. What leverage does this give to China in its negotiation with those countries who have contentious relationship with China? What about China with countries it already have friendly relations like Indonesia, Thailand, Iran, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia? Or even smaller nations like Palau, Solomon Islands, Maldives, Sri Lanka and PNG that are quite strategically located?

Beyond that, there is also the implication of just how operating Aircraft Carrier and Type 076 3000km or further away from mainland would help them in time of a conflict. Again, this is paired with an expected buildup of their nuclear submarine fleet as well as more ocean going escorts and Type 076s. In the case of 076, I think it is obviously designed with the Taiwan scenario in mind, but it will be able to operate somewhat as a light carrier against weaker adversaries.

Here are 3 circles that are drawn to be 3000 km from Center of Sea of Okhotsk, Guam and Subi Reef. Imagine a refueled J-36 going another 3000 km from Carrier operated location.

Immediately, you can see that Alaska would be well within range of stand off munitions and same with Darwin and all of the West Pacific islands.

Having a carrier fleet there that can refuel and provide fighter aircraft and CCAs to J-36s would allow it to command a pretty large attack force all the way into Alaska and take out air bases there that may be hosting B-21s, tankers, F-22s and F-35s. That would cripple USAF’s ability to attack China from Alaska. Again, that would also include DF-27 missiles and hypersonic launched from carrier escorts. At its core, J-36 is a force multiplier. As such, it not only provides air cover out to 3000 km, it also enhances the combat potential of carrier fleet and hypersonic missiles.

At this point, I think it’s also important to talk about J-XX and Type 076. The main reason to operate 2 types of 6th generation aircraft is to have a lower cost naval version that can take off and land on carrier/076 deck. J-36’s size would be a problem on flat deck. It takes up a little too much real estate for deck operation as well as elevator usage. J-XX and future naval CCA should be able to achieve 2000 km range from carrier. On a carrier, you may want to operate 30 manned aircraft and another 20 or more CCAs. On a Type 076, you may have just a few manned aircraft and up to 20 CCAs. Paired with J-36 led air cover and DF-26 threat, Chinese fleet should be able to operate from Sea of Philippines, very southern edge of South China Sea, Celebes Sea, Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal. I’ve circled 2000 km radius circles around the latter 3 as well as Diego Garcia. Diego Garcia is more to indicate how far a Chinese fleet would have to travel to be within 2000 km. It looks like having a fleet just to the West of Little Andaman Island would be close enough where J-XX led fleet could fly close enough to launch stand off missiles against Diego Garcia.

As such, the ability to operate from these areas with 2000 km J-XX would allow PLAN to threaten Darwin as well as Diego Garcia. Of course, India would also feel very threatened by this prospects. Conceptually, J-XX would have very much the same advantages over 4/5th generation aircraft (F-35B/C + E/FA-18E/F/G) that will be operated by USN and USMC flat decks. Although, since it is smaller and have less fuel, it will probably have lower power generation and combat radius (lets say 2000 km, so longer than J-20 and J-35, but significantly less than J-36). It will also likely control fewer drones. A carrier air wing’s command and control functions will be mostly handled by KJ-600.

In many of the cases, PLAN already has a qualitative advantage over its primary adversary in the CRUDES (Cruiser/Destroyers), but still trail quite a bit in air wing as well as underwater operation. By using the latest EMAL catapult across all its new Type 076s, PLAN will be able to operate longer range aircraft and at a higher tempo than what’s possible with USMC flat decks. In reality, you likely won’t see a battle of a PLAN fleet let by Type 076 vs a USN fleet led by America class. This is just to show how the addition of EMAL catapult allows for more capable aircraft off Type 076. It is worth mentioning that FA-XX funding has been slashed significantly over the next few years due to cost escalation across all the major shipbuilding project. While NGAD itself faced budgetary pressure this year, that is nothing compared to what the navy faces. It is unlikely the navy will have the budget to replace its escort fleet, build new carriers, submarines and FA-XX at the same time. As far as I can see, J-XX will be the only 6th generation naval capable fighter jet that will join service anywhere. To me, it is far more important for the naval version of J-XX to join service first rather than the AF version. SAC’s FC-31 project took a long time to transform to J-35. Hopefully, we don’t have to go through the same long timeline here. I think we are probably looking more at a 2035 service entrance for J-XX. That will give J-35 a good decade as the primary naval combat aircraft for PLA. Still, by the time that J-XX joins service, it will give PLAN air wing quite the advantage in naval warfare over USN. If its underwater fleet catches up significantly as I expect, PLAN fleet may become ready to engage USN fleet without land based aerial protection. It will also transform the attacking prowess of a PLAN fleet led by a Type 076. 4 J-XX leading a bunch of CCAs and CRUDES would overwhelm most shore defenses.

All of this for me is just a look at what additional pressure that can be applied by PLAAF and PLAN toward surrounding countries. At the end of the day, every major power expands their military with the goal of deterring their adversaries from doing things that they don’t like. Once fully in service, these new hardware will give China a whole new level of deterrence over everyone. It certainly would give the Chinese leadership a lot of leverage in talks with its neighbors.